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Published: March 11th, 2015

Co-chair of the MEF Ruslan Grinberg: For everybody the main thing now is to stop the war in Ukraine.

If oil markets recover, our currency will rise, Russian economist, member of RAS, academician of the International Academy of management, Director of the Institute of Economics, RAS, chief editor of the magazine "World of change" Ruslan Grinberg said to Novosti-Azerbaijan.

By the decision of the Board of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan dated 21February 2015, the official rate of the US dollar on Saturday is 1.05 manat, which means devaluation by 33,86%. According to an official statement of the CBA, this decision was made to create additional incentives for the diversification of the national economy, enhancement of its competitiveness and export potential, ensuring strategic stability of the balance of payments and international solvency of the country.

"In the country, whose economy rests on energy resources, it should have happened. But it occurs in different degrees and at different times. As for Moldova and Armenia, these countries are very closely connected with Russia, so there the devaluation took place before".

But the main reason for devaluation is weakening of foreign markets, and export is not diversified in our countries yet", - the expert noted.

According to him, after there had been a collapse of the rouble, devaluation was expected in the CIS.

"The main reason depends on the situation at the external output. If oil markets recover, our currency will rise. On the other hand, we will still depend on import. But the fact that Russia and Azerbaijan should cooperate in the energy sector, that's for sure," – he said.

He also said that the devaluation will not lead to a social explosion.

"I don't think that this inflation may lead to a social explosion. Although, of course, it would be a big blow for the poor, and middle class would have problems, but I think people need to show tolerance and solidarity with the state here", - the expert underlined.

While there is a sharp decline in oil prices, the global crisis and the devaluation of national currencies in neighbouring countries, the Azerbaijani manat demonstrated stability, its rate to the dollar remained at $ 1 - 0,7844 manat. Maintenance of the stability of the national currency through intervention costed the Central Bank of Azerbaijan 15% (2.3 billion dollars) of foreign currency reserves in December 2014 - January 2015.

President of the country Ilham Aliyev at the end of January instructed the government not to allow strengthening of the manat, and on 16 February, the Central Bank made a statement about the refusal from tight linkage of the national currency to the dollar and about the transition to a dual currency basket with the dollar and the euro.

The exchange rate of the manat has fallen from $1 - 0,7844 manat on 16February down to $1 - 0,7862 manat on 20 February during five days after this decision.

Chairman of the Board of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Elman Rustamov spoke on state TV (AzTV) on Tuesday, stating that there is no reason for a long-term weakening of the manat in Azerbaijan.

Publication source: newsazerbaijan.ru