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Published: February 11th, 2016

Handmade bottom

Victoria Gudkova: Oksana Genrichovna is the Russian economy alreaady on the bottom?

Oksana Dmitrieva: The current Russian crisis is a man-made and developed individually in our country. It is caused by inept actions of financial and economic bloc of the government and the Central Bank in response to Western sanctions and falling oil prices.

If the response was competent, the weakening of the ruble could become a powerful stimulus for economic growth. It is no secret that this is one of the main tools to overcome the crisis. But the rise of the key rate (the rate, under which the Central Bank gives money to the banks -. Ed.) In December 2014 nullified all the advantages of a cheap ruble and, moreover, has led to the paralysis of the economy.

Manufacturers sold their goods at one price, but had to purchase raw materials and components on other prices. Under the exorbitant loans it easier to curtail production. And in February 2015, we have seen it decline.

Victoria Gudkova: The Central Bank argued that the rate was raised to prevent speculation ...

Oksana Dmitrieva: Listen, this is ridiculous. Firstly, speculation peak was recorded just after raising the key rate. The Central Bank should deal with insider information that probably leaked from the agency. Secondly, the president then said bluntly: everyone knows who is playing at the market. This financial institutions associated with the largest banks. You could just say: do not speculate! Enable manual control of the notorious ... Instead, we raise the stakes and ditched production. It is clear that these decisions had there beneficiaries who got very well earned.

Collect from Chubais!

Victoria Gudkova: In the fall the federal budget had been drawn up on the basis of 50 dollars per barrel of oil. Now oil costs 30-35 dollars, They want to cut the budget. Could the drop be predicted?

Oksana Dmitrieva: The question of the forecasts for the oil prices now is more to foreign policy experts than to economists. Part of the decline in prices is really artificial. World is not in crisis, the world economy is growing, and therefore grows the demand for oil. To keep the price of oil at a low level throughout the year is difficult, so it reduces the impulses that cause panic in the currency market. And our financial and economic bloc are also in panic and acts wrong (I think this factor is taken into account by those who played against our country).

Let's at least wait for the results of the first quarter. In the past year we have made the same mistake: in April, the budget was cut by 300 billion, and in November it appeared therewere extra 200 billion rubles. They had to spend it by the end of the year. Even if the price of oil during the year will be held at the level of 30 dollars per barrel and will decline in revenue, it is not a reason to cut the budget social expenses and freeze constructions. Inside, the federal budget has retained reserve - about 400 billion rubles. In addition, it is possible to refuse certain expenditure. Here is the head of "RUSNANO" Anatoly Chubais said recently that the company has a lot of money. So why are they still receive 2 billion rubles?! There are about 100 billion rubles of such unnecessary spending.

Finally, in 2014-2015 banks and dubious agencies allocated more than 1.5 trillion rubles, which had not reached the real economy and were stuffed in different deposits. Of 1 trillion rubles, dedicated to banks, according to Accounting Chamber, to the middle of last year, most of the money was unclaimed. So hysteria about urgent rescue of the banking system was just a way to grab the jackpot on the sly. The same with the money of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) for the financing of such investment projects such as modernization of the Trans-Siberian Railway, the construction of the Central Ring Road around Moscow, etc .: from 600 billion rubles actually only 137 billion rubles came to the destination.

In different boats

Victoria Gudkova: You suggest to return those money into budget?

Oksana Dmitrieva: Yes, and there won't be need to cut anything, and normal indexation of pensions will be possible. We can refuse fees for truckers via "Plato" system (which is an indirect tax on small businesses and the public) and contributions for the capital repair. By the way, we recently introduced to the State Duma a bill that includes funding overhaul with the money from NWF. In order for residents not pay in advanced for the repair, which will take place in their homes decades after, and paid for it after the fact. The social spending and investment budget can not be cut during crisis , on the contrary, they need to be raised as much as possible.

Victoria Gudkova: What else is needed to reanimate the economy?

Oksana Dmitrieva: It is necessary to reduce the rate of the Central Bank. And limit by three percent margin of the banks with which they give the money received from the Central Bank, in the form of loans to businesses and the public. For import substitution finances that go for investment and job creation should be released of taxes, and a mechanism for long-term contracts have to be created, that is guaranteed demand. The entrepreneur, who invested, for example, in milk production, has to be sure that he has a reliable demand e.g. immediate kindergartens, but not tender, which will result in imported drink from a country with which we suddenly begin to actively make friends. The situation in the economy is hard. I think our officials have the illusion that everything will resolve by itself as in 2008-2009. But then the whole world was working on the release of the crisis, they were all in the same boat, and all followed the general guidelines. And even though we had the highest inflation rate and the biggest decline, but we did not cut social expenses and did not raise taxes. Today we are in different boats, and, moreover, other countries are not much interest to our boat sailed. We'll have to get out ourselves.

Source: Arguments and Facts