Plenary discussion II MEF-2016 "Russian Economy: positive scenario"

Published: March 9th, 2016

In the Fourth Moscow Economic Forum, which will take place in Moscow on March 23-24, experts will try to identify the anti-crisis measures for the development of the Russian economy. This topic will be the focus of the II Plenary discussion "Russia's economy: positive scenario", in which the deputy of the state Duma Oksana Dmitrieva will take part. On the eve of the MEF the permanent forum speaker told what changes are needed to move to the Russian economic growth.

– Oksana Genrichovna, in the year 2008, the government sent most of the funds to support the banking sector and the largest owners to combat the crisis. Similar measures are taken now. How does this affect the economy?

– This policy will only prolong the crisis, as stimulus measures actually taken to deal with the it. In 2008-2009, in the first place, in many industries coming out of the crisis has not occurred, the production volume has not recovered. Secondly, we have coped with the crisis not due to these measures, and, in many ways, in spite of, but because the situation has improved in the world economy and the oil prices increased. Now the crisis in Russia is local and man-made. This is a crisis on the backdrop of global economic growth, so, if policies do not change, not only in the distribution of anti-crisis funds, but also fiscal and monetary policy, then Russia will not leave the crisis.

– How monetary policy can be changed? Is it possible to use the occurred devaluation of the ruble to overcome the crisis?

– Devaluation of the ruble, if provided with cheap credit, could be used for the entanglement of the economy, tax incentives and there are no restrictions on demand. In other words, if there is no artificialy restraint incomes, devaluation is a powerful driver of economic growth. In order to provide a cheap loan is necessary, first of all, not to raise the key rate, but make it negative with respect to the inflation rate, to be regulated by the Central Bank in the banking margin. The difference between credit and deposit rates should be at a level of 3%, but not as high as 8%, as it is now.

– What measures should be taken for the implementation of a positive scenario in the Russian economy and the transition to economic growth?

– In the short term, in addition to lowering the key rate and provide cheap credit, you must implement the tax, investment incentives. It is necessary to ensure the indexation of money incomes of citizens, at least in the public sector, so as not to reduce the purchasing power of the population. It is also necessary to adjust the state order, so that it has a stimulating, strategic impact on the economy. The enterprises need, in most cases, to refuse tenders and competitions, and move to the stabilized prices long-term contracts. In the case of the adoption of appropriate measures in Russia to implement a positive scenario - a transition to positive economic growth. If the anti-crisis policy will remain unchanged, Russia is waiting for stagnation and a lack of diversification.

Source: PR department of MEF

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