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Published: May 13th, 2016

Alexei Kudrin has received two new appointments. He headed the board of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) and became deputy chairman of the president's economic council. Kudrin begins to prepare a program that can be implemented in the course of a new presidential term of Vladimir Putin. "Gazeta.ru" to inquired, what agenda ex-finance minister can offer.

The government structures and influential circles were trying to find a place for the head of the Committee of Civil Initiatives, ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin for a long time. He was intended for the presidential administration, the government, the Central Bank. He himself said that he would return only if he is given carte blanche to carry out reforms. But such powers are guaranteed to lead to conflict in the vertical of power.

As a result, positions in the government did not get him, but he will be engaged in reforms. However, not current, but those that will be used in the course after the presidential elections in 2018. A key role in the return of Kudrin belongs to the president.

"You know, I have never lost contact with Alexei Leonidovich. We are have always been on friendly terms. He is a very good specialist, a brilliant expert. And if he wants to contribute to the solution of problems faced by the country, why not? "- Vladimir Putin said in an interview with television channel "Russia 1".

"And that's the form that we found with him, his participation in the joint work, it suits him. I think that it suits us, too, "- said the President.

Alexei Kudrin explained that his arrival in the CSR is associated "with the request of the president, his conversion to me with a request to join the development of Russia's development strategy after 2018".

Position of the Deputy Chairman of Economic Council under the President will allow him to coordinate the expert development from the standpoint of the economic block of the government and the Central Bank, as the head of the financial regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Arkadiy Dvorkovich and Olga Golodets included in the Bureau of the Board.

The Economic Council will begin to work more actively, according to RNS agency, it is expected that the meeting will take place at least once in two months. The nearest meeting should take place in late May.

According to Kudrin the aim of the reform is to achieve growth of 4% on average over the next 20 years. He sais that it would be "a very significant achievement."

Most likely, the "Strategy of development of Russia after 2018" in its final form will be prepared under the direction of Alexei Kudrin no earlier than in the second half of 2017. However, now we can assume what the new program will contain. The former finance minister is very active in the public space and has repeatedly spoken out on the subject, what and how to reform (though not all the recipes are completely clear and understandable).

Here is a brief list of the major items that can be included in the "Kudrins program": budget cuts and structural changes, the transition to targeted social support, raising the retirement age, decentralization, public administration reform, judiciary, health and education, the liberalization of the labor market, privatization economy, increase productivity and competition.

Raising the retirement age is probably the favorite topic of recent months for Alexei Kudrin. He raises it in most of his public appearances.

"It is necessary to declare the need to raise the retirement age. You can start, for example, since 2019, but it is now necessary to declare such a scenario, as it will be necessary to spend a lot of preparatory work. We have to remove this issue from the debate, "- he believes.

The retirement age, in his opinion, may be 63 for men and women (now - 60 and 55 years). The issue is the rate of increase: for six months every year, on a year or less.

"Before the elections, we must also discuss-this issue, define the parameters, make a decision and announce it after the elections", - ex-finance minister said.

The current low retirement age leads to two problems. Firstl, the labor force goes out of the labor market, which is critical in terms of increasing the downsizing of the workforce. Second, the government is forced to constantly increase the size of the transfer to the Pension Fund from the Russian federal budget.

This year it will be about 3 trillion rubles. Accordingly, raising the retirement age will increase the amount of funds in the pension system and save budget money, asured Alexei Kudrin.

"Because of the problems of demography in the country, if we do not raise the retirement age, it will be difficult to mobilize resources to increase pensions, as we see in this year. That is, raising the retirement age is carried out for the sake of pensioners - that's the main idea. This concern for pensioners. I am sure that as the understanding of the problem widens we will have wide support especially from pensioners," - he said.

Kudrin also believes that it is necessary to maintain mandatory funded pension element (because it is a source of long investment resources for the economy), and to create incentives for voluntary savings.

"If as a result of the reforms that we take, we will decrease voluntary personal savings element, it most likely will be unsuccessful reform. Any reform to be carried out, should increase the incentives and opportunities for voluntary savings, "- said Alexei Kudrin. A similar approach to pension reform declared by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.

Against raising the retirement age and the preservation of the mandatory funded component acts governmental social block headed by Olga Golodets.

Budget maneuvers

Alexei Kudrin fully agrees with Finance Ministry on another key issues - the future of the federal budget. Costs must not increase at least, and the budget deficit gradually reduce. The zero deficit budget - the key to macroeconomic stability. "At $ 40 (per barrel -." Times ") we have the budget deficit should be close by 4.5-5% of GDP. As I said, such a deficit in Russia is very difficult to survive more than two years, and still we have to cut costs, "- said ex-finance minister.

He supported the desire of the Ministry of Finance to return to the three-year budget planning, although he believes that "the government is not ready to give answers to all the questions that will make the three-year budget."

But the costs should not only be reduced, but need to be redeployed, highlighting new priorities. For example, he proposed "to increase spending on infrastructure three times" and "3% of GDP to increase investments in human capital." At the same time should reduce the variety of subsidies and social spending, as well as to cut spending to support state-owned companies, defense and law enforcement.

The State in the economy should be as little as possible, which means that large-scale privatization is inevitable. Low current assets should not be an obstacle on the way. Kudrin proposes to introduce a special tax on capital gains that would be levied in the event of substantial growth in the value of shares sold.

The costs of social programs will decrease due to the transition to targeted support for the principle of need. "These changes are difficult to make in the course of this year, but they need to be prepared and start spending next year, which will inevitably also require adjustments", - said Kudrin.

Bad management

A large section of the program of reforms will inevitably be devoted to state administration. As well as the judiciary, health and education. These areas, according to the ex-minister, are in urgent need of restructuring.

"I think the elite, and especially the business elite and the working class will soon feel it, we all understand that the work of the institutions of the judicial system, public administration and education, and health care is unsatisfactory," - he says.

"We understand what it means to come to the state hospital, know the flaws of the education system, especially we know how the police work. A recent study commissioned by the OIG shows that 99% of all cases brought to court ends with the prosecution, 57% of the solutions obtained in special order and with recognition of guilt ... It's monstrous, and the system does not contribute to the development of the economy. Those institutions that have been established, if they are not rebuild, will lead to stagnation for a long time," - Kudrin said.

However he did not disclose the exact details of how to rebuild these areas. But one can assume that changes will be accompanied by a reduction in the volume of free services and a decrease in the number of employees in public administration, education, health and social sphere. According to Rosstat, in 2015, nearly 25% of all employed in the economy (around 18 million people) were employed in these sectors .

Previously, his version of public administration reforms proposed the head of Sberbank German Gref. Recently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev took advantage of them and offered Vladimir Putin his version of the changes. For example, it is expected to enter the personal responsibility of officials for the achievement of the established key performance indicators (KPI).

It is possible that a proposal for decentralization will be spelled out in the program. At the very least, the former Minister of Finance (who at his time consolidated taxes and fees in the federal center) mentioned this: "Regions are willing to manage their resources more flexibly. Ggrowth will start from the regions."

Writes for himself

Alexei Kudrin believes that Russia has definitely draged with the implementation of reforms. But even now there is a possibility to hold them so that we can go on the path of sustainable economic growth and improving living standards of the population "without any serious problems, including social ones." This approach means that "Kudrins program" will not contain any revolutionary proposals.

Experts believe that most likely Kudrin will write the program for the next term of Putin's presidency, which, however, will not allow reform to unbalance the already fragile socio-economic situation in the country. But who will be the Prime Minister for whome the program is written is the question. Here versions diverge. Some are convinced that Putin will keep the word given to Dmitry Medvedev keep him until 2018, and then radically change the composition of the Cabinet. Others believe the opposite: Kudrin will never be the Prime Minister. "For Putin, there is no more reliable person than Medvedev, - considers a source close to the authorities. - So he can once again become Prime Minister after 2018 ". Thus, experts agree that a serious economic program, on which Kudrin will work is needed. But it is not clear who is going to perform it and how to be guided by political motives.

Source: Gazeta.ru