Published: March 24th, 2016

March 24, 2016, 10:30

Lomonosov housing MSU

Organizer: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation


On the theme:

After two years of active policy of economic sanctions it is necessary to give a balanced assessment of how much impact on the development of Russia's socio-economic system, a number of restrictions in the financial, defense, trade and other areas by the West (the EU, USA, etc.). How did the sanctions influenced the living standards of the population, the activity of small and medium businesses? What restrictions are met by the policy of import substitution?

Moderators:

Marina Alpidovskaya, Professor, Associate Professor, University of FinanceRustem Nureyev, Chair of Economic Theory of the University of Finance, Professor


Among participants:

R. Nureyev, M. Alpidovskaya, V. Bazzhina, B. Bataeva, A. Blinov, T. Vojvodina, O. Danilova, V. Dementiev, A. Ermolenko, A. Zhdanovskaya, I. Zhuravleva, O. Karamova, L. Karasev, N. Kiseleva, A. Kuznetsov, T. Melekhina, V. Oreshin, S. Slepakov, D. Sokolov, V. Stasevich, A. Tsikin, N. Tskhadadze, I. Shulyat'ev, N. Hozhainov

Economic sanctions of the West against Russia - is still one of the most debated topics in our country. March 24 in the framework of the Moscow Economic Forum (MEF) held a round table entitled "Economic sanctions against Russia: Expectations and Reality." Participating in the discussion were employees of the leading universities of the country, representatives of the academic community and business.

Rustem Nureyev moderator of the discussion said that when assessing the sanctions it is needed to focus not only on the actions of the West, but also on the asymmetric response of Russia. Thus, the United States restricted the activities of Russian oil and gas companies in order to stimulate their own raw material production. The financial transactions, import and export of arms, investment projects had been limited. In other words, sanctions hit mainly by major oil and gas companies, banks. Russia's reaction to the measures taken was to limit imports of food products: meat, fish, dairy products, fruits and vegetables. This move not only caused damage to the United States, but also turned out to be quite painful for the average Russian consumer, causing a rise in prices for imported goods. The fall in oil prices and the subsequent fall of the ruble has aggravated the situation, and by the beginning of the economic crisis, according to the scientist, led a three-fold increase in the key interest by the Central Bank rate.

Some European countries and Russia itself suffered most significant damage. The rise in food prices that hit the wallets of ordinary consumers. The ensuing increase in the key interest rate by the Central Bank triggered the growth of overdue debts, business failures, rising unemployment and the development of the economic crisis in Russia.

The economist outlined the possible development of the situation. The first involves the preservation of the current conditions and the search by Russia for allies represented by the BRICS countries. The second comes from a possible increase in oil prices, the ruble and increasing trade with Latin America and Asia. The third provides for the lifting of sanctions and the establishment of economic relations with Western Europe. However, according to Nureev, under any scenarios identified the world economy after the resolution of the current situation will not be the same.

Marina Alpidovskaya professor, associate professor of the University of Finance drew attention to the discussion on the actual results of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. Contrary to popular myth, the Russian did not become a full member of the global economy, she said. Each year, the direct losses of the Russian budget from the reduction of import duties as a result of WTO accession numbers in the hundreds of billions of rubles. Moreover, opening up to foreign companies the opportunity to work in the domestic market, Russia cannot oblige them to use Russian raw materials and components, to hire the Russians to work. Following the said agreements Russia has reduced to extremely low levels the state support of export volumes and agriculture - these figures are not comparable with those of the EU or the US. "The thesis of the equality of the WTO - this is nothing more than a myth. The true meaning of equal participation is the WTO that weak Parties undertake to ensure that other, more powerful players, maximum access to its market, to provide them with employment there. WTO membership countries that are not members of the Big Four (the US, EU, Japan, Canada) - a club card without benefits, "- stressed Alpidovskaya.

Tatiana Vojvodina businessman, owner of the farm in the Rostov region, drew attention to the discussion of food security. According to her, Russian agriculture is dependent on imported goods from Europe: seeds and fertilizers, and chicken eggs, and more. This fact poses a threat to the country's ability to feed itself in isolation. "We confuse three things: import substitution, food security and food self-sufficiency, - said Vojvodina. - What is meant by food security? Not that we have a chicken egg from abroad, but that if we were closed somehow managed to feed the people. In the Soviet Union, whose food was scolded, food security still was. Even during the war there was no famine. And now it is very easy to organize it, and organizing food crisis, people can withdraw at any maidan ".

Vladimir Stasevich, CEO "ROBIS consulting" outlined the prospects for the space industry, dividing it from the perspective of the stages in the three main types: the creation of vehicles for launch into orbit, creating your own devices, and, finally, the provision of services to end users, using a space infrastructure based and largely infrastructure created on earth. In the first, according to the businessman, Russia has succeeded quite well and can grow in the second home industry relies entirely on imports and does not give hopes for the near future. Particular attention is paid to the speaker of the services sector: the market, he said, very nationalized and has great prospects. "Infrastructure that can be quite affordable, national, there is not need some high-quality electronic components. The main thing - creativity, initiative, the main thing - to offer the market interesting products. In reality, this is just one area where the private sector can participate in the development of our space industry, "- concluded Stasevich.

Lawyer Igor Shulyat'ev reminded the participants of the round table that the term "sanctions" is absent in international law, and these measures on the part of the West does not entail any obligation on the part of Russia. any retaliatory measures can be taken, because one way or another with the aim of sanctions on either side is to increase their own competitiveness.

Panellists unanimously noted that the sanctions have exacerbated the emerging problems in the Russian economy, but did not cause them. At the same time, in the history of Russia there were already similar challenges, and by analyzing past experience, government and business can find the best way out.

Concluding the discussion, Rustem Nureyev thanked the audience for that in the allotted time, various aspects of the sanctions regime were covered. An additional outcome of the discussion will be the monograph, based on speeches and materials of the round table.

Source: me-forum.ru