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Published: June 27th, 2016

Like a house of cards British two-party system crumbles in the background of the coming kingdoms exit from the EU. The ruling Conservative Party and the main opposition force in the Britain Labour Party is rapidly immersed in a crisis of leadership.

Real intraparty war erupted among the Tories. At least half of the Conservative Party MPs are not satisfied with The candidacy of Boris Johnson, who is the clear favorite of experts and bookmakers as the next prime minister of Great Britain. In this weekend opponents of ex-mayor of London urgently started to develop a plan not to let him in Downing Street.

At the same time, there had been a real coup in the opposing Labor Party. MPs have accused their leader Jeremy Corbin for the defeat in the campaign for the preservation of EU membership and demanded immediate resignation. When he refused, the shadow government members, one after another started complaining about the care and intention to express a vote of no confidence Corbin.

On Friday, Prime Minister Cameron announced his decision to resign. "I fought as best as I could, speaking directly and honestly about how I felt, put heart and soul into it, - he said -. But the Britains decided to go the other way. That is why, I think the country needs a new leader.". According to Cameron, he will continue to work until October - this time the Conservatives have to choose a new leader, who will begin the process of UK exit from the EU. Cameron also said that in the negotiations with Brussels, should include representatives of the parliamentary parties and all regions of the UK, to the people's interests were taken into account as much as possible.

However, a leadership vacuum formed in Westminster today and there is simply no one across the UK to hold talks with Brussels on behalf of London.

The first reports on the prospects of Boris Johnson's move to Downing Street appeared a few months ago, when he enthusiastically led the campaign for the UK out of the EU and quickly pulled on their side half of conservatives, including some government ministers. Johnsons speech on the referendum results was the confirmation that he started to position himself as the leader of the Tories, which calls for the unity of the country and understands the discontent of the losing side. "I appeal to those who may be concerned about at home or abroad, it (Brexit -.. Note the" RG ") does not mean that the United Kingdom would be less than one or less than the European" - he said.

According to British newspaper The Telegraph, citing informed sources, after the announcement of the outcome of the referendum Johnson, along with the Minister of Justice of the Kingdom Conservative Michael Gove, who also supported the campaign for withdrawal from the EU, began to assemble a team, or as it is called local journalists, "the government of the Brexit". The place of the leader belongs to Johnson. Gove will take over as the head of the Ministry of Finance. George Osborne the acting head of the finance department can also enter the team. He is rumored to have sent a message of congratulations to Johnson be immediately after the victory of the campaign for an exit from the EU. According to media reports, "the government of the Brexit" has already started to work out on registration rupture of relations with the EU Action Plan, in which expects to begin informal negotiations with Brussels as soon as possible and to create a separate department for the legal registration of "divorce".

However, Johnson has not officially announced his candidacy for the post of the new leader of the Tories. Meanwhile, not all conservatives consider his nomination acceptable. According to The Telegraph, Cameron's supporters believe that Johnson won by "false campaign" which "destroys trust in British politics and financial institutions." This half of the Conservative Party simply does not believe that Johnson has at least some kind of plan of action. Besides simple aversion worked for the image of a politician who, as a member of Parliament, has not often appeared in the House of Commons, and, according to deputies, is partially responsible for the resignation of Prime Minister Cameron. That is why the Tories out of the camp of supporters of European integration set as their aim to prevent Johnson to lead the party and the prime minister's chair.

As an alternative to the proposed Johnson the acting UK Interior Minister Theresa May has being suggested. Among her advantages extensive experience in government is included. But what is more important, she remained neutral during preparation for the referendum, which means that her candidacy will not cause sharp protest, in any of the splited parties of the Conservative Party.

According to forecasts of bookmakers, there are other contenders for the post of prime minister of Great Britain. One of them is Michael Gove, although he said he was not interested in this, and is ready to support the nomination of Johnson. It also covers three other candidates.

Meanwhile, the Labor Party are determined to get rid of party leader Corbin, who recently triumphantly won in the internal party elections. "At this critical moment the Labour Party needs a strong leader who at the moment is not, - said about the situation in the parliamentary opposition Labourist MP Hilary Benn, who until yesterday served as foreign minister in the shadow government of the opinion of the Labour Party, their leader has shown a lack of interest. in the campaign for Britain's membership of the EU, which is why the traditional supporters of the party simply did not know about the position of the Labour party.

Prime Minister Cameron, who promised to "balance the ship" in the following days and months, until a new leader appears, all this time remained silent will. Perhaps today at an emergency government meeting on the results of the referendum will become clear what will happen to Britain on who will take the responsibility to begin difficult negotiations with Brussels. In the meantime, the kingdom more and more like the same ship that moves without a captain in an unknown direction.

When preparing the issue

The Scottish Parliament can veto the decision of the UK to withdraw from EU structure. This possibility announced by the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon on Sunday. "If the Scottish Parliament will consider this issue from the perspective of what is right for Scotland, of course, it is likely that the response will follow, that we have not voted for it; it is contrary to our interests", - she said. According to Sturgeon, if the question of the withdrawal of Britain from the EU will be on the legislative level, she will recommend Scottish MPs to block the initiative.

According to the British lawyers, the country's withdrawal from the EU is a long process. Moreover, from the point of view of the law, the referendum results are purely advisory in nature, so that the government might simply ignore it. But from a political point of view, the government can not do that. So the event should develop in the next script. Prime Minister David Cameron following the resignation will remain in office until the election of his successor. By the law, he must offer queen a candidate for the formation of the government, and the whole process of selection of the candidate will take 2 to 3 months. At the same time, in accordance with the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty the state should initiate negotiations with the European Union: Prime Minister will inform the European Council, that is a collegial body composed of 28 heads of states and governments of EU member states, its intention to withdraw from the Union. From this moment begins the time allotted to determine the conditions under which London will leave the EU. In the relevant negotiations relies country for two years, but this period may be extended with the consent of each and every Member State. The outcome of these negotiations should lead to an agreement that is approved by the British, and a qualified by the majority of the 27 countries - EU members. If after two years the country has not come to any agreement or to extend the term of Britain leaving the union on general terms of the World Trade Organization, which may be disadvantageous for everyone involved. At the same time, according to the 50th article, the advantage in the negotiation process will be on the side of the remaining EU countries, and leaving the country will be difficult to fulfill all their wishes.

Among the items which will be negotiated, is expected to be the primary problem is the legal status of British citizens living in other EU countries and EU citizens living in Britain because their rights are not protected by the international law. The second item is a trade agreement with the EU. And the third point will be the UK's membership in the WTO, and therefore trade agreements with all 50 states that have such agreements with the EU, but do not have with Britain. The law does not spelled out the requirement of immediate treatment of the Prime Minister in the European Council, so that the country can take time to think and formulate their negotiating position and to hold preliminary consultations with other member countries.

Vladimir Putin Russian President:

- We never interfered, we never spoke about this. In my opinion, we acted very well. Of course, we closely followed what was going on, but did not influence the process and did not even try to do that. Therefore, the speech given by Prime Minister of Great Britain David Cameron before the referendum, in which he voiced Russia's position, have had no foundation. I think this is nothing more than a flawed attempt to influence public opinion in their own country. As we can see, it did not even have the desired results. And even more so after the vote to declare some of Russia's position, in my opinion, nobody has the right. This is nothing but a manifestation of the low level of political culture.

For ordinary citizens, ordinary citizens of Great Britain, I think, it is understandable why it happened. Firstly, no one wants to feed and subsidize the weaker economy, contain other states, whole nations. Apparently, people are dissatisfied with the decision by the security issues that today sharply deteriorated in the face of strong migration processes. People want to be more independent. But I want to say again: this is the choice of subjects of Great Britain. We do not interfere in it, do not get involved and do not intend to interfere. But we will strive to minimize any negative effects of this decision for our economy. I am confident that all this will be corrected as soon as possible.

Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Prime-minister:

- Now is the time that is necessary to unite efforts, including partners from the Eurasian Economic Community. This global trend is happening everywhere, although there are different trends, which are formed in the opposite direction of the global economy. In this context it can not be passed by what has happened in Britain. As you know, a referendum on its exit from the European Union was held there. Of course, this is an internal affair of the British, but it is obvious that the results of the referendum are important not only for the British and the European Union, but for the world economy in general, because the price of oil has dropped, the pound and the euro is also under pressure. The volatility of commodity markets and stock markets has very seriously increased. We are, of course, not pleased: it is an additional risk for the global economy, consequently, our economy, which is part of the global economy. Now it is very important to analyze the effects and to take our internal decision for the benefit of the Russian economy, which, of course, will be done by the Government of the Russian Federation.

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany:

Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the regret with which the German government has apprehended the decision of the majority of British residents to withdraw from the European Union. She promised to inform the Bundestag about the position of the Cabinet on Tuesday in a special statement. "Today's the day - that is a turning point for Europe, it is a turning point for the European reunification process", - stressed the Chancellor. How to respond to this turning point depends on the 27 countries that are members of the EU, stated Merkel, urging everyone not to jump to conclusions that may divide Europe again. "Europe is multifaceted As the people differ in Europe, so their expectations from the EU differs." - Said the German Chancellor. She pointed out that skepticism about the EU is present not only in the UK. According to Merkel, people need to feel that the European Union improve their life situation. "In a world that is constantly further integrated, the challenges are too great to cope with them some of the state", - explained her position the head of the German government.

Jacques Sapir, director of the Paris School of Social Sciences:

- For the European Union and its leaders Brexit became a bombshell. Although in fairness, note that the clouds had been gathering over this association for the long time. As a result, a gap between millions of Europeans and political elites of the Old World, divorced from the people's interests and aspirations, delineated real and visibly. European electorate has not been associating itself with the European integration project imposed by Brussels for twenty years. Why? Yes, because it only leads to economic, financial and regulatory restrictions, the infringement of sovereignty and national identity of the peoples. I should add that recently due to the growing terrorist threat in Europe, Europeans are more and more concerned about security issues. In the current emergency, the European Union must seriously analyze the series of crises that it is currently experiencing, and take drastic measures to solve them. The referendum and Brexit itself, in my opinion, become the victory of democracy in this country. Despite the strong emotional background created on the eve of the referendum by the murder of the Labour MP Joe Cox, the British electorate to make an informed choice against EU membership. Democratical was the position of the prime minister, the leader of the Conservative Party David Cameron. Although he campaigned for the UK in the European Union, he allowed members of his government office to hold the opposite position and maintain Brexit. For example, it would be impossible in France. If we talk specifically about the impact of the British shock on the France, then surely it will be a stimulus for all local eurosceptics. The leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, who enthusiastically welcomed the results of the referendum, called on the French to follow the example of the British. However, I do not think that this issue will be delivered until 2017. However, I am absolutely clear that European topics, the French membership in the EU will be the key in the upcoming presidential election campaign.

Vladimir Pozner, TV presenter:

- I think that Brexit will lead to:

1. To the disintegration of the EU. In fact, it is a pity, because the idea of the EU, which belonged to the brilliant political minds of postwar Europe was, of course, remarkable and progressive idea. Unfortunately, later small political players, rather than statesmen. EU from equal community turned into a club of purely political grounds. It was followed by the reception in countries such as Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Portugal, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and so on.

2. It is bad for Europe. It lost a chance to act as a single entity, the dream of a "United States of Europe" was buried. Asia and America will certainly take advantage of it. Russia will certainly take advantage of it.

3. This is bad for Britain. It will certainly lose Scotland, which has already nearly went out of its membership once, and now, when Scotland was all for staying in the EU, its withdrawal from the UK is guaranteed. Britain itself will turn to Britain, ie it can be written with a small letter, moreover, the coat of arms of Leo (England) and Unicorn (Scotland) will cease to exist. It can be assumed that "Union Jack" flag, created with the merge of England and Scotland by King James, will disappear too. In fact Britain plus Northern Ireland and Wales will remain.

Evsey Gurvich, head of the Economic Expert Group, deputy chairman of the Public Council under the Ministry of Finance of Russia:

- The dollar exchange rate will be at 2-3 rubles more before the end of the year influenced by adopted in a referendum in the UK decision to leave the EU.

It is not worth waiting for the dramatic consequences for the Russian economy, but they will be measured in fractions of percentage "foregone" GDP growth.

Two factors will affect the weakening of the ruble. First - the revision of forecasts for demand for oil, due to which the price of "black gold" will lose 3-4 dollars before the end of the year.

Europe would need more raw material, if not unprecedented expression of the will of British subjects: the potential loss of the UK's GDP is approximately 3 percent of the eurozone's GDP - from 1 to 1.5 per cent. For Russia, this is bad not only because of lower oil prices, but also due to the fact that the EU is our major trading partner.

The second factor - the details and the consequences of the divorce process are still unclear, and with an increase in uncertainty in the capital always runs quiet and safe harbor, especially in the United States. Consequently, the capital outflow from Russia may be higher than expected. Mitigate this consequence of the fact that it is now unlikely to increase in the US Fed, expected in the autumn. It will be postponed at least for the next year.

In the UK eurosceptics victory undermines the credibility of the stability of the EU structure. The Europeans have spent a lot of money and effort to keep Greece, one of the weakest economies of the union, and now one of the strongest economiсs are getting out, it is a bad example for others. An additional risk appears the prospect of a second referendum in Scotland on secession from Britain - the Scots were in general for having to stay in the EU.

Victor Ivanter, RAS academician, director of the Economic Forecasting Institute:

- The excitement in the commodity and currency markets caused by the results of the referendum in the UK benefit from speculators, but has no basis other than irresponsible forecasts.

Firstly, the British decision was not such a surprise. Second, the United Kingdom is not so much linked to the European Union, such as Germany or France, not least because that is not part of the euro area, and indeed the exit process will take about two years, at least. Third, the demand and supply of oil from this do not change.

This means that the impact of the British referendum on the markets will be exhausted during the week, when the dust settles. It is important that they are not heated in a vacuum media. The danger is that the frightened people begin to behave inappropriately. If serious newspaper writes that tomorrow dollar will cost not 65 rubles, but 80, of course, people will rush to buy the currency, and that's when the ruble at a time is really cheaper. Speculators will benefit from it, and people will lose, because everything will return to normal soon.

Besides, forecasts of the fall of the ruble are heating the inflation expectations because people are used to that after the weakening of the ruble increased the rate of inflation.

Source: Russian Newspaper