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Published: July 8th, 2016

Economic Council, on the importance and necessity of which inspired people had spoken for so long has been held. The question remains: why talks about the launch of economic growth can never be transformed into something more meaningful?

Even a "diagnosis" of the Russian economy did not happen. Or rather, no one dared to say out loud what he thinks about it. As no one, however, does not argue with the fact that economic growth does not resume itself. Yes, the Russian economy has adapted, what is happening now is not called the crisis but the structural recession in which the loss of one percent of GDP per year is not a disaster, just a gradual return to the level of the beginning of 2000 (in seven to eight years ).

The revenue falling touched those compatriots who watch TV, rather than those who are sitting in this TV.

And who said that this situation does not suit anyone? Stagnation is stagnation, but the Russian golden boys still races on "gelendwagens" in Moscow, and the Russian girl model shine on the runways and festivals. Owners of apartments in Belgravia advises Russians to buy "single-room" flat in Butovo, and buyers of ocean yachts talk about "cohesion" and "overcoming". The revenue falling touched those compatriots who watch TV, rather than those who are sitting in this TV. According to Rosstat, half of Russia's population lives on incomes of less than 22 thousand rubles a month.

At the same time, as reported by Romir poll, most people are quite happy with the current small income. I would not have believed the sociologists that women have reduced their requests, but scientists know better. However, many feel that things could be much worse, whatever popped on television, so they tell the city and the world of its deep satisfaction.

But let's say that we are talking seriously of the resumption of economic growth. Well, two prescription medications have been prepared for the Economic Council.

First, reduce the risks, then there will be investment

Plan number two is associated with the name of the former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, it is useful to fix almost any situation. Start by bringing order to budget expenditures. You do not have to spend money on absolutely obvious stupidity, knowing that if the company does not want to invest the profit, then the business does not see any prospects for themselves in the existing administrative system. We'll wait. The economy is growing, where entrepreneurs believe that the level of expected returns exceeds the level of business risk. If opportunities to extract windfall is no need to reduce the risks, then there will also be an investment. Not the other way around. First, reduce the risks, then the investment will be. In the evening, the chairs, the money in the morning.

First, a bustling plan, known as the "budget stimulation program." In the most general form of this plan as a major drug involves pumping the economy with money - the budget ones as well as those that are on the accounts of enterprises.

"Come on, - people familiar with the rules of arithmetics objects, - do you have any idea what the scale of the investment required for a wonderful salvation? It is not Africa, where half a century ago, the construction of the road to the ocean port in one fell swoop increased regional GDP if not almost doubled.

Generally black continent provides many examples of stunning designs of infrastructure investments. At the time President Mobutu built in Zaire (the former Belgian Congo) most modern runway in Africa. In order to Zaire Führer to fly on the weekend fun in Paris to have on a supersonic 'Concord'. At the same time, Mobutu ordered to blow up the concrete highway built by "the damned colonizers" - so that rebels in the jungle could not get to the capital.

But Russia is not Zaire. It is a country with an average income. And in order to reach the level of GDP growth not even by the four but three per cent per year in the year, according to the calculations, which led economist Andrei Movchan, the budget will have to increase public investment in the third. It is only this year, and next year - even one-fifth, then one-tenth ... In general, the investment budget will have to reach 15% of GDP and stay at this level for many years. And the result is not guaranteed.

There is no need to go to Africa for example. After the crisis of 2008-2009 the budget, in general, and thereby engaged in stimulating, creating a state corporation and investing in a variety of "construction". The result was not so very impressive, otherwise Economic Council would not have to look for ways out of the recession.

Without the "needle" and without a budget

Another mantra of the Economic Council is the discussions about the need to "get off the oil needle" and "diversify the economy." But wait a minute: none of the adepts of the sect of the diversification witness never said how and when the "getting of needle" will provide the filling of the budget? The budget, which is still oil-dependent.

Of course, it is good to fantasize about how Langepas pumps oil, Skolkovo produces something innovative and Ivanovo floods the country with cheerful calico and all this is done at the same time. But in practice, it is impossible, if we are talking about public money. Each official ruble, aimed at the production of the Ivanovo cotton prints - is the ruble lost to investment in the oil industry.

Economist Maxim Mironov once offered a very vivid comparison, showing the stupidity of the diversification. "Imagine, - he said, - an investment banker, who, rather than deal with the main work will master some craft in case of crisis, rather than simply postpone money for the blackest day. But what salary to compensate for the "fallen income" the banker , who decided to work as a mechanic, should ask for himself?”

Export revenues of the entire Russian defense industry is comparable with revenues of Disney Company. Maybe it is really better to make the cartoons?

Do you want to send "oil money" in the production? Perfectl. But what exactly are you going to make that would be comparable with the oil on the profitability and the volume of revenue? Please do not offer import substitution, because the consumption of Russians - a derivative of the level of salaries in the budget and near budget sectors, which means that the failure of the budget expenditures will sum its consumption under the freezing point. Do not lie to yourself, buyers in the country will not be enough. By the way, the export revenue of the entire Russian defense industry is comparable with revenues of Disney Company. Maybe it is really better to make the cartoons

Cheap credit for the good king

It may be objected that the really rich are the countries that produce something, that we rightly call the industrialized. The book af a remarkable economist Erik S. Reinert, "How rich countries became rich and why poor countries remain poor" is written in black on white, that sustained economic growth is usually the result of winning by interest group representing exporters of manufactured goods, as well as the decline - this is a consequence of the victory of the raw material exporters . Immanuel Wallerstein said the main problem in Latin America lies in the fact that all its civil wars certainly won by a "conditional South" - the owners of raw materials, interested in its simple exchange on goods. The idea is true, but there is one thing that readers of Reinert (Wallerstein and at the same time) is usually overlooked.

In his book Reinert as a historical illustration gives an example of economic development in England. Future "workshop of the world" in the Middle Ages was a raw materials appendage of the Netherlands, exporting raw wool that Flemish weavers turned into cloth. For two centuries, the English kings tried to ban the export of raw materials and establish its production of the same fabric, but to achieve this goal was possible only under Elizabeth the First. A hundred years later the first British Prime Minister Robert Walpole, said that the essence of his policy - ensuring raw material import and export of manufactured goods.

However, not any decrees or the gallows helped to transform the economy to the British monarchy. Before King Henry VII Tudor, who invited to his country ever Flemish weavers - carriers, as we would say today, the unique technical knowledge, Englishmen failed to build their own weaving industries . And his granddaughter Elizabeth gave refuge to Jewish bankers who created the royal subjects for the world's best credit system.

The loan grew more expensive with the growth in powers the King had.

For England Holland was a source not only of production, but also social and political technologies. Studying the history of the British Treasury, the Nobel laureate Douglass North perhaps the first economist drew attention to the remarkable fact - the loan grew more expensive with the growth in powers the King had.. Article of North "of the Constitution and binding promises: the development of public administration institutions in England XVII century" should be memorized by everyone who whine about the lack of money in the economy and the high rate of refinancing.

North wrote that the market rightly suspected that the temptation to give up its own obligations to the autocrat may be too large and bankers pledged this risk in the price of money. But after the Glorious Revolution of 1688, when to replace the harsh King James Stewart came good King William of Orange, who was also King of Holland, and the English monarchy had lost much of the power of the rights, the cost of credit for the crown immediately dropped.

Despotism as the enemy of autocracy

Reinerts is often interpreted as an apology for protectionism, but in fact the protection of domestic production and the entrepreneur can not be reduced to the ban on the importation of competing products. As aptly observed by Konstantin Sonin, a businessman from the main expert on the interpretation of laws, why in Europe Russian monarch called a despot? I'm just autocrat, Nicholas insisted resentfully, and autocracy - this is not despotism. Your Majesty, Bludov explained, the difference is that the monarch can change laws at will. But until they change or remove the monarch, in contrast to the despot, he must obey these laws. A truly strong state is able to protect the entrepreneur from public servants, and if this does not happen, and on investment you'd better not to fantasize.

The main resource for the capital

In addition, all arguments about the heyday of the economy under the supervision of quarterly guards have one weak spot which all panelists sidestep. By default, it is assumed that the administrative capital of the country is objectively interested in the economic development of the regions.

But is this so?

Historical experience teaches us differently. At the time, Moscow's rulers went to the military and punitive expeditions on the lands inhabited by people speaking the same language and Russian professing the same religion as the Muscovites. You can somehow understand why Ivan crushed Kazan, memories of Tatar Ferocity were quite fresh. But why formidable sovereign crushed Novgorod with even greater ferocity, because, unlike Kazan, the commercial city on the Volkhov posed no military threat to Moscow? However, Novgorod was not the military, and even political, but primarily economic alternative to Moscow, which was the main resource of the resource-military administration, reallocation of resources.

What is the colonial empire "from the book"? Metropolitan imports from the colonies and directs resources to products. Suppose we put in the "center of the empire," the very "first Russian", which writes Natalia Zubarevich - Moscow, Sochi, a pair of strong cities -"millionaire" and our oil and gas capital, providing the state budget.

The bureaucratic decision is quite a product, expensive and valuable

One may joke that "capital produces nothing" other than bureaucratic decisions. But, from the point of view of the Russian economy, every bureaucratic decision - quite a product, expensive and valuable, indispensable element of business processes, the lack of which can not be compensated by any creative solutions and breakthrough technology. Remember, a gun outweigh hundred thousand other evidence, taught the legendary Captain Zheglov.

What resource does capital receive of the province in exchange for the decisions and orders? The most important - human and creativity. The presence of a single center of power and glory means that all of the most active, energetic and promising will seek the capital, or, so to speak, "the metropolitan orbit." To Moscow, to Moscow, three sisters wailed. And rightly so, by the way.

The difference between the capital and the "non-capital" is obvious. The capital's residents are plenty of cursing the city hustle and bustle - the proportion of those who voluntarily changed his residence to the capital peyzanskie charms statistically insignificant.

Any economic strengthening of regions will automatically result in the termination of the inflow of human resource into capital

Real diversification of the economy will demand polycentricity of the country. Boeing - it's Chicago. Coca-Cola - Atlanta. Microsoft - not even in Seattle, but in the town of Redmond. Pizza Hut - Dallas. The list goes on. And the standard of living and the quality of services in these cities is not inferior to New York and Washington the level of quality. And even superior.

In our case any economic strengthening of regions will automatically result in the termination of the inflow of human resource into capital

On the dead anchor

It is possible that for the Russian territory as a whole and for the people inhabiting a scenario in which local quality of life closer to the quality of life in the center is strategically advantageous. But it is hardly so for the capital itself.

In the early 60-ies of the last century thanks to Ted Sorensen, a speechwriter for President John F. Kennedy, became popular phrase - "a large wave lifts all boats." US President used this expression to illustrate the idea that economic growth eventually will solve all problems, social in the first place. But by using this metaphor, we can argue that a wave raises only those boats - though large or small - that float freely. Those same boats that are on the "dead anchor", a large wave will upset and simply drown.

Before you draw the growth prospects, even with government funding, though without it, it would be nice to say - what kind of "boat" will be raised by a wave of development, and which will go to the bottom. To imagine what kind of influential groups are objectively interested in the development of, and which, as objectively choose to leave at any cost "things as they are." Only in this case it will be possible to make the debate on economic growth more inclusive.

Source: economytimes.ru