---

Published: August 8th, 2016

How often do you make mistakes in your life? And where do you find the strength to correct them? Agree, when you stand before a difficult and important choice, the ability to predict the future is priceless. Because it is by your choice and will depend on your real future.

Multivarianced future there are even in our country. However, we do not make a choice, the choice makes the government, preferring liberal ideology and the same economic policy. We get the result of this choice in the form of social guarantees of the state, but rather in their absence. To me Russia is seen in the image, "Knight at the Crossroad" - no one knows where he goes, has huge but unrealizable potential . That is why our country needs to make the right choices in the direction of the path. Just who is it who will tell us? It turns out there is such a profession - to shape the future. And it is called not the president, but futurist.

Does Russia have a chance? What will be the flagship of our country? What choice our government has to make? Today these and other questions are answered by my new guest - Maxim Kalashnikov, futuristic writer, producer and journalist.

«SP»: — This morning I turned on the TV. In one famous program guests were futurists. There was the head of the Association of futurists, was a representative of the Moscow State University. Frankly, none of them I did not know, but immediately thought of you. You're well-known writer and futurist. Are you invited to such programs? And who is a futurist?

— Never again will be invited. I am in every stop list. A well-known futurists - is Alvin Toffler, who recently left us at the age of 87 years, Sergei Pereslegin, and Igor Bestuzhev-Lada. Futurist is a person who on the basis of understanding of what is happening in the world, based on current trends, sees the future - namely, its variants. The future always has variants! Futurist at the same time calls on to shape the future, to build it consciously. It is interdisciplinary activity associated with intuition, with imagination. When Toffler in 1980 wrote the famous book "The Third Wave", the Chinese Communist Party has ordered all its members to study this work.

«SP»: — Does futurist analyze?

— This is synthetic science. Analyst - divides and synthetics - unites. Futurology is on the verge of Sciences.

«SP»: — And what methods have futurology? How do you form variants of the future?

— Firstly, you always read a huge amount of literature, a large number of sources. Monitor trends in society, in politics, in the economy, in science and technology for several decades. And if in the society started some process, its impact will be felt for decades to come.

Now those who were born in 1985 are 30+ years, and they will soon come to guide, and depending on how they were formed, how their consciousness is formed, we get the consequences for three decades. A striking example: in the Soviet Union was "knocked out" generation of the 20s was born. They are the ones who in 1941 was 18 - 20 years or more. Therefore, the power was in the hands of previous generation people. Unfortunately for the Soviet Union, it was very unpleasant consequences. And another example, now people of 1985 and the later years of birth are becoming the leaders. They are, unfortunately, very much "mutilated" on a subconscious level. I've been watching the young oficials around 1985 year of birth, - the defenders of the development of raw material, such defenders of petty regulation of business, I honestly did not see. And, in comparison with them, I feel younger.

«SP»: — В чем заключается твоя «молодость»?

— We propose to carry out a new industrialization. Due to what? Due to the increase of export duties on raw materials. At the same time lower the duties on the export of finished products. That is for the export of ready-made complex products - VAT return, and for the export of raw materials - not to return. Young officials say: "What do you mean, how are we going to supply the world market with ore and timber?!" They even had no idea that it is possible to processe and ore, and wood here in our territory! In this case we suggest to use Russian breakthrough technologies. But the young ones in the head - subservience to the West, the desire to borrow its techniques. "What can Russian create?" - They think.

And if we believe in the creative energy of our industrialists, these "young zombies" - do not believe.

«SP»: — Why is this generation has undergone such changes?

— Because they did not see the Great country and their sense of national inferiority hardwired into the brain subcortex. They grew up in a world where already there were not Russian toys, Russian electronics stores, and Russian industrial goods in general. And they are confident that the Russian did not know how to do. By the way, the millennium generation will also be very unpleasant in this sense.

«SP»: — And how do you feel about cycling? Futurists used Kondratieff cycles, for example.

— I never go with the stream. And when all addicted to political correctness, and information technology, I did not. About postindustrialism I have always said - this is nonsense, that on the contrary, it is necessary to develop the industry, and a new type, you need to develop a new type of people. Countercyclical Ideas of the economist Keyns are close to me. When economy recovers we need to gain "economic fat" and when there is a recession in the economy invest money to start new projects.

Therefore, we must use cycles wisely, conducting countercyclical policy. I am convinced that the event should be "saddled" and guided in the right direction. You can not sit back and expect that you will make a cycle. Therefore, in order to cycle the Great Russia has begun, it is already under construction and should be a lot to do.

Keep in mind that each cycle has weaknesses. For example, the post-industrial information weakness cycle, firstly, that the information technology cause dementia in humans and degradation.

«SP»: — You talk about internet?

— Yes, including. Introducing information technology since childhood does not lead to an acceleration, but even slow down the development and leads to regression. Children need to write, to work with hands, read real books - thus they develop their brains. Information technology is necessary to be given to them around twelve years, not before. The second mistake - is the output of industrial enterprises into Asia. And the Russian had to exploit weaknesses in this series in the West. That is, in every possible way to develop our people and to engage in production. Pay attention to the program of Trump. He wants to bring back industry in the United States. This is a typical example - the United States will have to build a new industry in itself. Post-industrial nonsense blown away.

«SP»: — This is a worldwide trend.

— Yes, because it is impossible to create a world where one country will develop and invent, the second - produce, and the third - consume. Whoever produces - as a result will be the center of the development and consumption. So futurology should help build the future. Because if you did not create your future, you will go to someone else tomorrow. And you may not even be in that future.

«SP»: — What is the main trend expects the world in the future?

— We are moving to a world in which the need for raw materials will fall. We find ourselves in the reality of a flexible robotic manufacturing, and very resource-saving.

«SP»: — What will replace the usual raw materials?

— New materials. For example, aluminum with the addition of nanotubes. This material greatly increases its strength, wear-resistant quality. The same - with steel alloys. Thus, the construction of bridges, building frames, technology will need much less metal. The same story with concrete, which with the addition of the nanotubes becomes much stronger. Therefore, the world is going to ensure that it will need less steel, aluminum, cement, plastic. If you have all of this is produced less you will need less oil. Also coming era of electric vehicles with a very capacious battery, charging for 10 minutes. Also with the use of nanotechnology. Soon, you may receive a compact fusion power plant, which "Lockheed Martin", the largest aerospace companies in the United States, promised to introduce in 2017. Already established stereo printers that can print, even a gas turbine engine, wherein the metal consumption falls by 30-40%. We expect a world where per unit of production will need much less material.

«SP»: — Is Russia ready for such a change?

— Naturally, not ready. I see a danger for Russia is that it does not fit into the future. Today we see small teams of enthusiasts. For example, some of them do optomechatronic laser machines. The guys are working in Zelenograd in the old Research Institute building. This machines are very accurate mechatronics, and instead of cutting edge there are lasers in them.

«SP»: — But there are analogues in the world, such as in Northern Italy they make such machines.

— In Italy and in China it is poured into a world-class corporation, while in Russia people can not get out of the old Research Institute building for 20 years. And competitors, who in his time were far behind from our Soviet developers are already billionaires, and ours - in limbo. Because the Russian Federation spends money on Olympic projects on image projects, but not on the real deal.

«SP»: — It turns out that, in spite of everything, there is industry in Russia, there are enthusiasts, there are people capable of restoring its former potential of our industry?

— If you start now, you have a chance. And these people can grow very quickly. I know a company in Yaroslavl that produces three-dimensional printers for building houses. Now they build houses on order, but they can not go to our mass market. They do not have money, because in Russia there are no cheap credits. To understand the situation - in China apartment house is built in two weeks.

«SP»: — Which sectors should belong to the state? Liberals are for having to give everything to the private sector. And the ultra-left - for nationalization. What do you see as the balance?

— State's hand should be there, where it can manipulate. For example, in machine tools it is better to give the money to anyone who can make advanced machines. Even if it is the private owner. The state must hold in their hands the most important for the defense and development of the country's scientific and industrial associations, most of the military-industrial complex, science. But the replication of new technologies, its improvement, creation of breakthrough products and merchandise on its basis - there is a private trader inimitable. In this case nothing prevents him to keep his science, for example.

«SP»: — Some experts have expressed concerns that the technology, the same innovative machine from private owners eventually foreign companies buy up. You do not have such mixed feelings?

— Private trader who has 25 years of experience in machine tools into Russia, who survived, who is not broke - it is selected material, the elite with the Patriots. For 25 years they have not fled from Russia and did not sell their secrets. And there's another option: when a representative from Germany or France comes to an official of the state corporation, pays him much less "cash" and takes the same secrets.

«SP»: — During Soviet times, machine tools belonged to the state. Are not You a defender of the USSR?

— In my books, my USSR-2 is a state with a mixed economy, which is very much presented with the private sector. Moreover, I believe that the Soviet Union died because of the total nationalization of the economy. Under Stalin, this system has worked for 30 years, but Beria thought about reforms, because not everything was effective. And Stalin's economy has been paired with a deficit. For example, due to shortage of spares thousands of tanks on the western border on 22 June 1941 could not move. Or when Kapitsa raged, talking to Stalin that in England it is possible for two or three hours to get to the store and buy what you need for the lab, but here he is forced pester commissariats for month. Therefore, the Stalinist economy was not perfect. And the return of such economy now is a suicide.

Therefore, the machine tool industry, in mechanical engineering, in other complex industries should receive subsidies as a private entrepreneurs and state-owned companies. Even space exploration should not be completely state. Because the private owner can produce launch vehicles a lot cheaper than it will make state-owned company. A private company is not inflates costs. State-owned companies in Russia are placing into the cost huge salaries of managers, inflated cost of materials, they ignore the new technological solutions. Therefore the private trader may create some technical part and it will be cheaper. And the state should create a breakthrough and something new - to invest in "event horizont" development that private trader never drags. We need to create, like in the United States, a successful tandem of "state-entrepreneurs."

Also let's not forget that the private owner in knowledge-based industry provides not only taxes to the state, and even employ people and pay, it also creates a demand for engineers in the technological development of the country.

A viable and modern economy - it is multi-sectoral, hybrid economy. There is a combination of indicative planning and private initiative. There are both public sector and cooperative sector, and enterprises to labor collectives of the property, and the private sector.

As a futurist, I see that, for example, "Gazprom" - is a state patrimony. Why then privately owned? As in the oil industry. I filled the pipe and sent abroad. But oil refining - this is not only the state, but also need a private owner. But the Internet business - the realm of private initiative. Aviation industry may be partly state, partly - private. Suppose that there is a healthy competition.

«SP»: — Maxim, but there are different production. And sometimes it comes to privately owned resource that produces it, pollute the environment and "jumps off". And this is the reality of the Russian Federation.

— Yes, but state-owned companies can also work so too. And in the Soviet Union were all polluting enterprises, because they are not dependent on local government. I remember in 1981 entered into operation port plant near Odessa, where in an erea of five kilometers there were nothing living due to ammonia. At the same time it was state enterprise.

And here the question - to the state. And why, in the first place, the state did not set standards for the construction of sewage treatment plants?! Second, why did the government made it so that local authorities can not affect the unscrupulous production?

As futurist I say it will be a very strong local self-government in Russia's future. And officials in Moscow, will not be put with a bribe and a plant without water treatment facilities will not be built in Orel and Bryansk. Locals will not allow it.

I prefer the formula of Ivan the Terrible - a very strong central government and very strong local government.

With strong local government people comes to the private entrepreneur, who had built, for example, the giant agricultural complex without treatment plant and says: "Either organizes everything right, or we'll close you." Another thing is that with a strong self-government private owner could not have built superfarm without recycling plant for manure and urine. Therefore, this issue is to the state.

Also, when local government the control mechanism works very well for the deputies and selected "heads", the mechanism of their reviews. And so, if a person forgets what he promised voters he immediately deprived of power.

«SP»: — Now the bulk of revenue from production either it is a raw material, or not recieves shareholders. And not all of them want to invest the proceeds in the development of production, in workers' wages, to social programs. Although, thank God, there is a very worthy leaders. But they are few. How should the state act?

— The current Russian Federation is anti-industrial "quasisuperpower". In a normal economy, including the mixed, where there are private enterprises, workers receive decent wages. In the same Sweden, Germany of the 70-ies before the transfer of production to China.

Firstly, the shareholders have their own profit, but so that they would share with the workers should be carried out two important principles. First, the worker is entitled to trade unions and collective bargaining agreements. Such unions are not tied to the enterprise and do not depend on the shareholders, this branch trade unions. If management with the workers are rude, the union "cut in" the strike and the company incurs losses. Employment contracts and other - they are not an individual, but only collectively spelled with a social package. This is described in the famous book "Career management" by Lee Iacocca, where he shows how trade unions entered into an agreement with the automobile industry, "Ford."

The second point - it is an appropriate policy of the state. It is necessary to introduce a 50 percent tax breaks on profits by investing the profit in his own company. Thus, the state co-financing and energy saving technological innovation in businesses, as well as the advanced training program.

Differentiated scale of taxation of personal income should be introduced. That is, the more one receives for oneself, the more you pay income tax. In the 60 years in the United States revenues that exeeded two million dollars was imposed by 98 percent tax. You do not want to pay so much? Invest your money in the company, to develop it, share with the workers.

And besides, if the shareholders will transfer the money abroad, they need to get some questions from the state. Industrialist Konstantin Babkin said: "Try to withdraw money from the Canadian company? Will not work". Therefore, in a reasonable state money should remain in the country and in the sphere of production.

In the meantime, the government does not introduce progressive taxes, while, by the way, keeping the huge taxes on production itself. And if the state does not interfere withdraw money from Russia, if not preclude private trader luxuriate, then, of course, the private trader starts to enjoy the moment. And besides, there is simply not enough plants and there is no competition for labor. In Soviet times, a good specialist for metal processing with "pressure" guild bosses can "spit" and to get to another place. He would have been with his arms and legs torn off.

«SP»: — You've long been an advocate for the new industrialization. What is its ideological meaning?

— Industrialization is the best way to save our people from degeneration and extinction. People need to be combined by business. Creating, for example, a cargo plane triplane "Hercules", which will be the first-class export commodity and give Russian authorities over their space - people will become a team. Their thoughts are in this unprecedented problem, they will stop seting up each other because they have a common cause, they become associates and employees. The same can be said of those who make vessels and tools, and electronics, and engines, and household appliances. Yes, all that and more complex materials "first repartition"! When people live in the commodity economy - they degrade, including mentally. When one does not produce anything, and the top are selling raw materials, and then pinch off from its bounty handouts, then people start drowning each other for these pieces. I was in the elections in Novosibirsk, and the locals were saying that when Novosib was a Soviet city and local high-tech enterprises worked at full capacity, the atmosphere reigned in the city was completely different. Because people were doing business together. When it begins the competition for a place in the government in order to access to oil money crumbs, people are becoming degraded and vile creatures with lackey psychology.

Today, raw materials Russian Federation entered into a fatal systemic crisis. So I am for industrialization. Because, firstly, it saves our people. Secondly, it will create the future of civilization, a new world. Otherwise Russians are doomed. Therefore, the new industrialization should be to create a new future. Here is my ideology. Do not handle - woe to us!

Source: Free Press