April 3-4 2018
Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). Key theme: "Russia and the world: image of the future".
Ruslan Grinberg: "The main danger - the impoverishment of the population"

Published: October 24th, 2016

Scientific Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg at the festival of press "All Russia" in Dagomys answered questions about the state of the Russian economy.

- What is the reason behind policy of reducing the number of banks, ie, in fact they strangulation?

- The government greatly reduces the number of banks, so the banking system was more manageable. It may have being good. From the outset, it was impossible to allow anyone who wanted to, in the banking sector. But the crisis has played a role. The banks are growing volume of delinquent loans. Neither the people nor the company can pay. There is a third factor: there are companies that want to take over the bank. And this involves power. All banks, except for maybe the first five or ten, are under fire.

- Monopoly are being created in the banking sector, as in many others.

- This is so, and there is nothing to be surprised. Strictly speaking, our country is monopolized. It is always bad. When there is a monopoly, you just need saunas five by five meters, to negotiate. And in Germany it will be necessary to have a sauna kilometer by kilometer, to gather all participants in any market sector. Agree not work. We have cartels and monopolies everywhere. But there is an important detail. We live in a global world. The world is open, and it operates the process of centralization and concentration of capital.

- What can you say about the strangeness of a pension savings?

- It was utter stupidity was to distribute this money to private insurance companies. The State undertakes to pay. And these guys ... they put there, where it is not necessary. They thought that we have "long" money, as in America. But what kind of "long" money arer in Russia? All live in the present day. In Russia there is no place to invest, and this is also a problem. This is the basic nature of the investment activity of paralysis ...

- What economic dangers are characterises the current situation in the country?

- In my opinion, the biggest economic danger - it is the impoverishment of the population, and that is dangerous for the authorities, for the country as a whole. Inflation, contraction of economic activity, lack of confidence in all but the first person ...

This can lead to rationing will become necessary. Cards for vulnerable people can be introducee. If the poor are so many, it is best to keep prices low and subsidized trade from the budget. And if poor not many, it is better to pay extra to maintain their purchasing power. Obviously, it is necessary to subsidize - select about ten products and keep the price.

In general, I confess honestly, a few years ago, I was convinced that sooner or later Russia will follow the Western path, because it is a system of three "D": children, money, home (in russian all those words start with "D"). Those who make decisions in Russia have their children, money and property in the countries they criticize. I thought that was a guarantee. But no, it turns out, you can get off to show curse America, having children, money and home in America. This inferiority complex in one bottle with delusions of grandeur. This is our perception of the world today. Defeat in the 90s - major trauma. Crimea and Donbas mattered - people were really happy. But how long will it last?

Russia has a strong immune system. According to various estimates about 80 billion dollars Russians has "in the mattresses." Survival is possible. Even in the "fat years" 80 percent did not live but survived. The middle class is now shrinking.

- Tell me, what is the most favorable outlook for the economy?

- Everything will be good again if China will restore its economy, and the demand for resources will resume at the previous volume. But we have nothing to hope for. The current impasse, it is both economic and political, and cultural, ideological and what you want. It is not clear where happiness will come from...

Source: News world