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Published: March 30th, 2017

Theme of discussion:

The need to change the present course of development is in the air. This is indicated by all. The authors of the most popular economic strategies are invited to the meeting. They will discuss which program promises the greatest success in modern conditions.

Moderator:
Konstantin Babkin, Co-chairman of the Moscow Economic Forum, President of Industrial Union “New Commonwealth”

Speakers:
Sergey Glaziev, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation
Boris Titov, Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ Rights
Wang Wen, Executive Dean, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY)
Dmitry Kurochkin, Vice-President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Russia
Oleg Zelensky, Chairman of the Board of Directors of “Halych Truck Crane Plant” JSC, “Klintsy Truck Crane Plant” JSC
Oleg Bochkarev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation
Nikolai Kolomeitsev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for Labor, Social Policy and Veterans Affairs

One of the key topics of the Moscow Economic Forum is the search for a way to develop the Russian economy, which allows achieving sustainable growth and industrial development. According to the moderator of the II Plenary discussion "What development strategy will work in modern Russia?", the co-chairman of the Forum, the president of the Industrial Union "New Commonwealth" Konstantin Babkin, the idea that it is necessary to change the economic strategy, fundamentally change approaches to economic policy that is in the air, is discussed both in the kitchens and in the high offices. The President instructed the government and the association of entrepreneurs to prepare proposals for such a strategy, and by May they will be presented to the president. The government strategy implemented by the Central Bank and other institutions makes us believe that Russia can not reach significant growth indicators, notes Konstantin Babkin.

"The only task of the Central Bank is to reduce inflation, but the key rate due to expensive loans makes the development of the country impossible, and also ensures the withdrawal of capital. If you are an American banker of world level, then you simply have money on the bank's accounts, secure your income in Russia to 11% per annum. Therefore, Russia pays 326 billion rubles a year. Because of the difference in the value of money between Russia and foreign countries, a colossal withdrawal of money from the country is ensured, "said the President of the Industrial Union" New Commonwealth".

But there are other strategies, in particular, people who work in the real sector, have already developed several sectoral strategies, under which it is possible to provide industrial growth of 15% or more, Babkin emphasizes. Our country can survive a period of rapid growth, for which Russia has the necessary potential. "We propose that the leading goal, the flagship of the development strategy, is to conduct a new industrialization. All policies should be aimed at making production in Russia profitable," finished the co-chairman of the Moscow Economic Forum.

Boris Titov, authorized under the Russian President for Entrepreneurs Rights, chairman of the Party of Growth, made a speech with a specific proposal for changing economic and social policies. The business ombudsman is sure that even in the current difficult conditions, progress can be made if the approach to the economy is changed.

The main topic of the report was the work of the Stolypin Club and the "Growth Strategies" program, offering a set of measures that should bring success to the business that is ready to build the foundation of well-being in Russia for generations ahead. According to Boris Titov, the Stolypin club gathered a serious team of economists, academicians, representatives of various financial and manufacturing companies.

What is the difference between their views and the Kudrin team? First, it is a different business view on the development of the economy. The expert sees a solution in the interaction of micro and macroeconomics. It is necessary to find an answer to the question, where can our country earn without oil? Secondly, the speaker believes that microeconomics should be based on macroeconomic incentives. More information is available on the Stolypin Club website. Third, the balance between risk and income. According to Titov, the country needs long-term loans, a reduction in the lending rate, and a moderately low stable ruble exchange rate until 2019. Another factor is business support. According to Titov, it is necessary to stimulate demand through cheap mortgages, to support business in other sectors. As an example, the speaker cited the successful experience of the automotive industry.

In conclusion, Boris Titov stressed that our country needs a development strategy based on a moderately soft monetary policy, reducing production costs, and public stimulating private investments. In Russian business, it is necessary to restore the lost balance between risk and return, which will return investors the interest in Russia. It is necessary not to pinch everything, not to drain the money offer, but to saturate the economy with investments.

Why is it important to take into account the sectoral balance and human needs in the development strategy of Russia, told Sergey Serebryakov, director of the Petersburg Tractor Plant JSC, at the II Plenary discussion "What development strategy will work in modern Russia?" In his opinion, changes in education and the financial and credit system are needed.

"In my opinion, the modernization stage should be the ensurance of the methodological literacy of the population. Today it is too low. We are talking about the transition to a new technological structure, but at the same time 80% of graduates of universities do not have the knowledge how to work in production. We need a normal science that will educate, including officials who are engaged in state administration in our country," stressed Serebryakov.

Russia also needs a state planning and goal setting in the economy. It is necessary to rethink the past, because the government always had its own specifics, and focus on the effective management that existed in the 30s of the last century.

According to Serebryakov, the goal of the state administration should be aimed at meeting the needs of the population: it is necessary to increase the effective demand of the population. Today, the situation is the opposite: not only money was withdrawn from the economy, but real incomes of the population also fell. The development strategy of Russia should be oriented to certain regularities. First of all, you need to think about interbranch balances: enterprises should know the prospects for several years ahead and calculate their capabilities, taking into account the scientific and technological base.

"Our strategy should be balanced and have morals, because in a wicked economy we will not be able to make a dash," concluded the MEF speaker.

The need to deepen the relationship between Russia and China was indicated by the executive dean of the Institute of Financial Studies of Renmin University of China (RDCY), Wang Wen, speaking at the II Plenary discussion "What development strategy will work in modern Russia?". According to him, in 3-4 years China will become the largest market in the world, and in 10 years - the largest economy in the world. "Of course, China also has economic problems, they exist in any country, but they did not stop China's progress," said Wang Wen.

The scientist outlined the strategic vectors for which China is currently moving. One of them is the strengthening of interrelations with other countries and investments in other countries, including Russia.

Russia and China, according to Wang Wen, demonstrate a pattern of relations between the two great powers. "We have very deep strategic relations, a high level of trust. We would like to improve and deepen the relations between our countries in order to realize joint projects in the infrastructure, financial and industrial sectors. If we integrate in all sectors, we can achieve an even greater degree of mutual understanding. This is our future," China representative believes..

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, advisor to the President of the Russian Federation on regional economic integration Sergei Glazyev focused on investment activity. According to him, this is the only key to scientific and technological progress and economic growth.

"The volume of investment activity is two times less than it was in the RSFSR and continues to fall. We are working for about half of the amount of investment that is necessary for normal growth of the economy, "the politician stressed..

Using the Chinese economy as an example, the academician demonstrated the need for skillful economic regulation and creation of credit for advanced economic sectors. At the moment neither the state nor commercial banks provide this. Despite the fall in investment and economic activity, the Central Bank squeezes the amount of money. He, raising interest rates, forcing commercial banks to repay loans. Business is trapped: to cut production or transfer credit to the consumer.

"Interest rates in Russia are absolutely marginal: nowhere in the world does the economy work at such rates. Our economy is exotic in this sense. The world is going through a transition to a new economic way, and in order to avoid a new Great Depression, it is necessary to expand lending, "said Glazyev.

At the same time, ideal conditions for speculators have been created in the country. Transactions with currency bring fabulous profits, as a result of which credit institutions do not bring available deposit funds to creditors. Moreover, the volume of speculative currency transactions, according to Glazyev, grew fivefold against the background of a fall in all manufacturing industries.

The Adviser to the President is sure that the obligation of business to expand production should be the basis of loaning. It is this combination of state control and support for private business that will help to form and develop high-tech industries in Russia.

The illustration of the real economic sector was presented by Oleg Zelensky, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Halych Car Crane Plant JSC and JSC Klintsy Truck Crane Plant. As the speaker himself designated, he works "on the ground", which means that he is the one who faced real difficulties in developing his own business.

Oleg Zelensky believes that the biggest obstacle is still the onslaught of competitors from China. And first of all, foreign market players operate at a low price. Therefore, today, the speaker is sure, one of the main goals in the process of supporting domestic entrepreneurs should be help in import substitution. In the same vein, the expert complained about the shortage of domestic raw materials for the full production cycle. "Unfortunately, providing worthy quality of automobile cranes, today without imported materials cannot do. This is a real problem, "Oleg Zelensky said..

A businessman is sure that each enterprise needs to have a wide brand assortment in order to enter new markets. It is the choice opportunity that will ensure the buyer's good demand. Another component of success, Oleg Zelensky called stable high wages of ordinary workers.

Dmitry Kurochkin, vice-president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, spoke about the work of the Council for Industrial Development and Competitiveness of the Russian Economy. The main goal of the Strategy is to realize the potential of the Russian population and increase its welfare. This is achieved through a paradigm shift in the socio-economic development of the country, through the solution of a number of tasks: equalization of competitive conditions for industrial enterprises, the introduction of a coordinated and reasonable industrial policy, more active and consistent protection of the interests of domestic producers, identification of manufacturing sectors as the main locomotive of long-term development of the country's economy.

The main driving force behind Russia's development in the long term, according to the expert, should be non-primary sectors, since these industries provide the greatest multiplier effect. Dmitry Kurochkin stressed that in the long run it is critically important to develop and implement mechanisms related to creating conditions for reducing production costs. All foreign economic policy must be subordinated to the policy of a new industrialization. "The implementation of the proposed set of measures will allow us to launch a process of sustainable economic growth based on the realization of the country's industrial and human potential," the expert concluded..

Nikolay Kolomeitsev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy and Veterans Affairs, complained about the Government's inactivity. According to him, 15 years of talk about modernization and innovation led to the fact that in the structure of GDP the share of manufacturing industries decreased by 15%, and trade increased threefold.

«We have a government of macro-laws that do not answer for anything. No minister is responsible for pieces, kilometers, cubic meters. They have a task - to tell about the next strategy or roadmap, to present, and then, shortly before the timeframe for its implementation, to create a new map with shifted deadlines, "said the deputy.

Kolomeitsev supported other participants in the discussion in criticizing the Central Bank and the high key interest rate. "The 23 central banks of the world, including all leading banks, have made significant cuts in interest rates," he stressed. The Central Bank of Russia, according to the deputy, does not consider himself responsible for economic growth. As a result, Russia has the lowest monetization rate among the BRICS countries - 40% (for comparison, in Japan this figure reached 284%).

The strategy of economic growth, according to the policy, should include the following measures: the nationalization of natural resources and basic industries, state control of the threshold of production and sales of alcohol, a progressive scale of taxation.

Oleg Bochkarev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation at the site of the second plenary discussion of the MEF, told how the strategy of Russia's development should look in the near future.

Oleg Bochkarev considers planning as the main force disciplining the promotion of the domestic economy. This, in the opinion of the expert, allowed the country's defense-industrial complex to reach successful indicators. It was defense that became a vivid example of how the industry can grow if it is invested by the state. The result is brilliant - an annual increase. In 2015, it was 15%.

Despite the sanctions, the defense and industrial concerns of the country are increasing the number of personnel and promoting the party for export. Oleg Bochkarev said that today the whole defense industry complex faces the challenge of diversification. By 2020, the share of civilian products should reach one-third. "We must take the entire domestic market, which today is 5 trillion rubles. These are jobs, this is our welfare, "Oleg Bochkarev outlined plans for the future. For this, the expert is sure, correct, patriotic thinking is necessary. After all, the final decision on the purchase of a particular product is taken by people, managers, who today must look towards the domestic producer of defense products of the country.