Bad times has not passed: economists gave prescriptions from poverty
Published: December 19th, 2017In the press center of "MK" a round table was held with the participation of well-known scientists and analysts, dedicated to summarizing the economic results of the outgoing year and forecasts for 2018.
Economic growth of 1.6%, which was called "sustainable", is in fact only a correction one - this was the opinion of the panellists. The crisis is not overcome and can return at any time, despite the optimism of the authorities. Experts also called on Russians to be healthy pessimism, advised not to relax and gave several practical recommendations how to save personal income while in the population they continue to fall.
"Correction of growth means adaptation to the existing conditions. Nevertheless, the crisis has not gone away, it can return under the influence of external factors - a fall in oil prices or a new round of sanctions, "said Igor Nikolaev, director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis of FBK. In this regard - his advice to the Russians: exhaled, but do not relax.
"The protracted stability becomes stagnant. People need not economic growth in official statistics, but an increase in their personal incomes, but they only decrease, "- added the scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the expert of the International Economic Forum Ruslan Grinberg.
"Economic conditions are a little warmer, but for such an important indicator as the level of life expectancy, Russia ranks 100th in the world, and even per capita GDP per capita is surpassed by Malaysia," Yakov Mirkin, head of the IMEMO RAS, said. According to him, the state "treats" the economy point-by-point, but an integrated approach is needed. Ex-Minister of Economy of the Russian Federation Andrei Nechaev noted that macroeconomic indicators, which are so optimistic in official statistics, raise doubts. "We received low-quality economic growth. The main problem is the volatility of the main components of growth. The only thing that is stable is the drop in the incomes of the population, "the speaker emphasized..
The main risks for 2018 experts called the aggravation of the external political environment, sanctions, the fall in oil prices and inadequate assessment of the economic situation in the country by the authorities, who sincerely believe that the worst is over. To protect themselves and the family from these risks, experts advise, "to keep and not relax".
"Bad times in the economy have not yet ended and take for real money optimistic assurances of the authorities are not worth it. Now it is better to take yourself in hand and try to earn some money, you will not regret it, - says Igor Nikolaev, - It's still time to demand debtors return your loans to you. «But the expert does not advise buying bitcoins, he said, for Russians such an investment is irrelevant.
Yakov Mirkin, in his turn, metaphorically called the Russian economy "a great adventure."
"In this adventure wins the one who all the time generates something new and likes to change. In a changing environment, one should not expect that someone will feed you, for example, the state, so it is important to maintain the ability to generate income at any age. A person is a commodity in the labor market, so you need to invest in yourself, in education, health, and skills. At the same time, you should not take on too high credit risks, which interrupt any future income of the family. The same is with currency risks. The ruble still has to prove that it is a stable currency. In short, I do not recommend speculating on financial markets, the rules of which you do not know. But if you are in the financial "pyramid" or "bubble", then leave on time, "advised the economist.
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